Eller Faculty Research: How “Forever Chemicals” Can Impact the Economy

A new study conducted by Professors of Economics in the Eller College of Management Derek Lemoine and Ashley Langer, Associate Professor of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Arizona Bo Guo, Eller Economics PhD alum Robert Baluja, and former Eller Post-Doc Wes Howden will be published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The research examines how PFAS—per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances often referred to as “forever chemicals”—may affect infant health when they enter drinking water. To understand how this may impact families, this interdisciplinary research team studied all births in New Hampshire from 2010–2019, focusing on families living near PFAS-contaminated sites. 

Because groundwater flows in predictable directions, some households received water from “downstream” wells that carried PFAS from nearby PFAS-contaminated sites, while others received water from “upstream” wells that were not affected. Families did not know which type of well supplied their water, making this a rare opportunity to study real-world exposure in a way that closely resembles a controlled experiment.

The study finds that expectant mothers exposed to PFAS in their drinking water experienced higher rates of low birthweight and preterm births. It also shows increases in more serious low-weight and early-birth outcomes, as well as infant mortality. These findings build on earlier laboratory research but offer new evidence from real-world exposure across a large population.

To help inform policy discussions, the researchers translated these health impacts into economic terms. Their estimates suggest that PFAS-related low birthweight, preterm birth and infant mortality lead to more than $8 billion in lifetime costs each year in the United States. These costs include medical care, long-term health impacts and reduced lifetime earnings. The results indicate that the potential health benefits of PFAS cleanup and regulation may be substantial.

The study focuses on two “long-chain” PFAS chemicals—PFOA and PFOS—that are no longer manufactured in the U.S. but remain in soils and therefore are still percolating into groundwater. The authors highlight opportunities for future research, including understanding the effects of newer PFAS compounds and the role of long-term exposure. They also note that activated carbon filters, whether used by water utilities or installed in homes, can remove these long-chain PFAS from drinking water.

This important Eller research provides timely insight into PFAS exposure and supports ongoing national efforts to better understand and address environmental factors that influence public health.

The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) is one of the world’s most respected multidisciplinary scientific journals, publishing high-impact research across the biological, physical and social sciences.