2020 Eller Economic Outlook Video
This December we featured our annual flagship event the Eller Economic Outlook on ZOOM. Watch the event video here!
Overall, the Arizona has now replaced 193,900 of the 294,600 jobs lost from February to April, for a 65.8% replacement rate. The nation has replaced 54.5% of the jobs lost from February to April. In order tor eturn to pre-pandemic employment levels, the state needs to add 100,700 jobs. If Arizona can continue to add nearly 13,900 jobs per month on average, as it has since June, then employment will be back to pre-pandemic levels next June. However, that may be a difficult pace to maintain, since over-the-month job gains averaged 6,200 during 2015-2019.
Arizona received a significant boost from the CARES Act, with just over $40 billion in federal funds flowing to the state in the second quarter. That supported taxable sales and boosted the recovery in retail trade, warehousing, and transportation jobs. While construction employment rose modestly from June to October, housing permits surged, rising almost one-third over the year in the third quarter. But, the outlook for Arizona remains unusually uncertain and continues to be dominated by the pandemic.
Arizona’s Economy Remains Buoyant
Second Quarter 2024 Forecast Update
June 4, 2024 - The Arizona economy kicked off the new year in solid shape. The labor market has normalized somewhat, with quit and hire rates back to pre-pandemic levels and steady job gains. Even so, the state unemployment rate is near historic lows.