Economic and Business Research Center

The premier source for information on Arizona’s economy since 1949.

The Economic and Business Research Center (EBRC) focuses on applied economic research and community education for Arizona.

Through the Forecasting Project, events such as the Economic Outlook Luncheon, funded research projects and online resources Arizona’s Economy, Arizona-Mexico Economic Indicators and the MAP Dashboard, EBRC makes the latest data and analysis available to Arizona's citizens and decision makers.

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Arizona’s Economy Walks a Fine Line

Second Quarter 2023 Forecast Update

June 1, 2023 - The Arizona economy started 2023 in solid shape. The labor market generated strong job growth and low unemployment. Labor compensation decelerated at the end of 2022 and into early 2023 but remained robust. Even so, rapid inflation continued to chew up wage gains. In addition, retail sales declined again in the first quarter, after a strong increase in the fourth quarter of 2022. With plummeting housing affordability and much higher mortgage interest rates, housing permit activity plummeted in late 2022 and into early 2023, driven by declines in single-family activity.

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CORONAVIRUS DAILY AND WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

As the impacts of reduced household wealth and social distancing work through the economy due to the spread of COVID-19, tracking the economic performance of the travel and tourism sector can help to get an early read and provide insight into the size and scope of these impacts on the overall economy. Going forward we will be tracking key indicators: daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Arizona, its counties, and the U.S., initial claims for unemployment insurance in Arizona and the U.S., Hotel occupancy rates, movie ticket sales, number of movie releases. Check back often for updates and as we add new indicators.

Just scroll down the page to review and download the indicators. Use your cursor as a tooltip on the charts to view the numbers.

As of March 23, 2020, all Arizona and U.S. daily confirmed coronavirus case data is extracted, recorded, and updated on the site between 9am and 10am PST. It is possible for these numbers to change throughout the day.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

These data show year-over-year seated diners at restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare the week ending Saturday to the same week in the previous year. this dataset is based on a sample of approximately 20,000 restaurants that provide OpenTable with information on all of their inventory.

High-Propensity Business Applications are a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona and measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factor. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona and include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Applications dataset. Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Explore EBRC's Community Sponsored Projects

The Forecasting Project

EBRC’s Forecasting Project team produces the most in-depth economic analyses and forecasts available for Arizona and its communities. These quarterly forecasts aid our community sponsors around the state in their pursuit of the next level of business success. - George Hammond, Forecasting Project director

"Maricopa Association of Governments uses the data, analysis and forecasts from EBRC’s Forecasting Project to add to our understanding of emerging trends in the Phoenix metropolitan area. It gives us another valuable way to view the future of the region."
- Anubhav Bagley, Regional Analytics Director, Maricopa Association of Governments

"EBRC’s Forecasting Project provides the RTA with high-quality data, analysis, and forecasts for the Tucson region that add significantly to our understanding of local economic trends and implications for the future. The economic data we receive is critical to our organization."
- Robert Samuelsen, Chief Financial Officer, Regional Transportation Authority

Learn About Forecasting Project Membership

Arizona's Economy

For more than half a century, the EBRC’s award-winning online magazine, Arizona’s Economy, has brought you the latest economic outlook and forecast data for Arizona, Phoenix and Tucson, plus news and applied research on topics which affect doing business in Arizona. You will also find the latest indicator data for all Arizona’s metro areas and counties.

Read Arizona's Economy

MAP Dashboard

The award-winning Making Action Possible (MAP) Dashboard’s mission is to measurably improve Southern Arizona through data-driven, collective civic action and education. The MAP provides data and analysis on a wide range of socio-economic indicators, while exploring key trends, and allowing for comparison at the metropolitan, state, national, and county level.

View the MAP Dashboard

Arizona-Mexico EconomicIndicatores, Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The university of Arizona

Arizona-Mexico Economic Indicators

Track Arizona’s trade and competitiveness in the U.S.-Mexico region. Find analysis of current issues and data on Arizona-Mexico import/export, commodity flows through Arizona’s border ports of entry, investment, border crossings, population and tourism. We also provide comparative data for other border states and major ports connecting the U.S. and Mexico.

View Arizona-Mexico Indicators

EBRC’s work on the MAP Dashboard website has helped to move the needle in several key areas. It has become the trusted source of information that Southern Arizona uses to benchmark progress and inspire action.

- Ron Shoopman, Chair, Arizona Board of Regents